The big AI World Cup Poule battle

Five AI models were given exactly the same task: predict every match of the 2026 World Cup, from the group stage to the final. The models themselves decide which factors to include and how heavily to weight them. We keep score as the tournament progresses, match by match.

Five AIs, 360 predictions, one winner. May the best AI analyst win.

How does this betting pool work?

The five AI models (the most elaborate versions of ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Copilot and Perplexity) were given exactly the same prompt and had to predict the entire 2026 World Cup on that basis. The task was extensive and specific: each AI first had to justify its own methodology, including which factors it weighed and how heavily.

A number of factors that each AI had to take into account were defined in the prompt:

• Recent form - the last five matches per country
• Selection quality - star players, depth of selection
• FIFA ranking - the current world ranking
• Injuries and availability - which key players are missing
• Tournament context - Does a country already have something to gain or lose, is it being rotated?

Each AI was allowed to decide how heavily it weighted each factor, but had to explicitly justify that choice. However, each AI was given room to bring in its own factors.

He then had to predict based on that weighting:

• All 72 group matches with exact result
• The final ranking by group including points and goal difference
• Which 8 numbers 3 advance to the knockout phase
• The full knockout phase: Last 32, Last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final
• A dark horse - an outside chance that comes further than expected, consistent with its own bracket
• A flop - a top country falling out earlier than expected, also consistent with its own bracket
• A top 5 top scorers of the tournament

Predictions are recorded before the tournament started and will not be adjusted. We score all predictions according to the Scorito points system so that the comparison is fair and consistent.